IDC Analysis : Windows Phones to Overtake iPhone iOS by 2015

Microsoft’s Windows Phone OS will be the second most popular smartphone platform in 2015 according to handset shipments, according to the latest predictions from IDC.

It sees Microsoft’s OS overtaking Symbian, BlackBerry and iOS in the next three years to take a 20.3% share of global smartphone shipments in 2015, up from its estimated 2011 market share of 3.8%.
IDC predicts Windows Phone will overhaul Apple’s iPhone by 2015

IDC thinks Google’s Android will remain top dog, with a 38.9% share of global shipments in 2011 rising to 43.8% in 2015 – which with IDC predicting 982 million smartphone shipments that year, would mean 430 million Android smartphones.

IDC predicts that iOS’ global market share will slip from 18.2% to 16.9% between 2011 and 2015, while BlackBerry will fall from 14.2% to 13.4% – although in both cases, the growth of the overall market means both Apple and RIM will be shipping more devices.

Symbian is expected to decline from a 20.6% global share in 2011 to 0.1% in 2015, based on Nokia’s plans to phase its platform out in favour of Windows Phone 7.

“End-users are becoming more sophisticated about what kinds of experiences are offered by the different operating systems,” says IDC’s Ramon Llamas. “Taking this as their cue, operating system developers will strive for more intuitive and seamless experiences, but will also look to differentiate themselves along key features and characteristics.”

IDC thinks that 2011’s total smartphone shipments of 472 million units will be up 55% on 2010’s 305 million.

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